According to a Moody’s Analytics report, President Trump is favored to win reelection to the White House in 2020, but several factors will have to fall into place for the commander-in-chief to win another four years.
Moody’s model has successfully predicted presidential elections since 1980 until its first miss in 2016. Like so many others, they predicted that Hillary Clinton would win.
“In our post-mortem of the 2016 presidential election model, we determined that unexpected turnout patterns were one of the factors that contributed to the model’s first incorrect election prediction,” wrote Mark Zandi, Dan White and Bernard Yerbos of Moody’s Analytics.
“The model did not account for the individual attributes of the candidates other than whether they belonged to the incumbent political party. In other words, it assumed Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were generic candidates, which they were not,” the research firm concluded.
Moody’s report, tweeted out on Tuesday, said early signs point to a Trump victory mostly fueled by a strong economy. However, the results will depend on voter turnout.
— MoodysAnalytics ECON (@economics_ma) October 15, 2019
In spite of the Democrats efforts to make the millions of Americans who voted for Trump turn on him, and the Democrat 2020 presidential candidates bustling for the opportunity to run against him, according to the world’s premiere political forecasters, their entire charade could be nothing more than a contentious formality.
Moody’s “pocketbook” measure focuses on three economic variables to determine who will win in 2020: the change in gas prices, the change in house prices, and changes in personal income. This is where Trump shines brightest, grabbing a whopping 351 electoral votes.
Each of the three election models used by Moody’s Analytics to forecast the 2020 election indicates that Donald Trump will likely win the presidential contest. Under two of the models, Trump is forecast to win with more than the 304 electoral college votes he garnered in 2016.
“Under the average of the three models, Trump would hold on to key industrial Midwest states and pick up New Hampshire, Virginia and Minnesota,” Moody’s said in a report detailing the results of its models.
Moody’s election forecasts have been very reliable in the past, correctly predicting every election result except 2016. The model undercounted support for Trump because it did not anticipate the increase in voter turnout that shifted the majority vote in crucial states.
It gets even wilder…
Importantly, Moody’s models all predict Trump wins even if the economy dips to multiyear lows by the end of 2020 and the stock market crashes 9 percent. In other words, Trump is expected to win despite a falling stock market and a sagging economy.
The bottom line may come down to turnout, which could play a big role in the election. If turnout by Democrats and independents voting against Trump is low to average, Trump easily wins under the models. If it climbs to the historical maximum, Trump would lose under the stock market and unemployment models but still win in the pocketbook model.