Scientists Develop Blood Test That Can Predict If You’ll Die Within Next 10 Years


The older we get the more concerned we become about our health and fitness hoping that we remain healthy in our senior years. We also start to wonder about our longevity and how many years we have to live.

If you’ve ever wondered how likely you are to die in the next five to 10 years, scientists may now have an answer for you. Researchers identified 14 molecules in blood that are associated with dying from any cause. They say a score based on the molecules can predict one’s risk of death. But the ominous foretelling is not all bad. Scientists say it may encourage lifestyle interventions and help with treatment decisions.

While death is inevitable, knowing when it will come isn’t necessarily, and scientists have been trying to develop a test that could reliably and easily predict how long a person will live — or, more technically, how healthy they are and therefore how vulnerable they might be to major mortality risk factors. Blood tests are the most likely avenue to such a test, since it’s easy to obtain blood samples and labs equipped to handle them are common.

Scientists led by the Max Planck Institute for Biology of Ageing in Germany found 14 biomarkers in the blood that are independently associated with death in people of all ages, as reported in the journal Nature Communications yesterday.

Armed with this knowledge, they then made predictions about a person’s risk of death within the next five to 10 years. Their predictions proved to be considerably more accurate than the ones made through conventional methods, such as measuring blood pressure and cholesterol.

“As researchers on aging, we are keen to determine the biological age. The calendar age just doesn’t say very much about the general state of health of elderly people: one 70-year-old is healthy, while another may already be suffering from three diseases,” study director Professor Eline Slagboom said in a statement.

“We now have a set of biomarkers which may help to identify vulnerable elderly people, who could subsequently be treated.”

The team studied the metabolic biomarkers found in the blood of 44,000 people aged 18 to 109 across Europe. These biomarkers were known to be involved in various processes including fatty acid metabolism, fluid balance, the breakdown of glucose, and inflammation. The team then carried out a follow-up study with the same participants, ranging from three to 17 years later (during which time over 5,500 participants died), and looked to find out how the presence of the different biomarkers was associated with the risk of mortality.

“Biomarkers give us important insight into what’s happening in health and in disease,” Dr Amanda Heslegrave, a researcher at University College London’s Dementia Research Institute, who was not directly involved in the study, commented on the research.

“In this new study, a number of the markers are validated and implicated in long-term mortality and the authors suggest that more could be, which would be a worthwhile exercise.”

However, as the researchers themselves concede, Dr Heslegrave added that further work needs to be carried out before this research has real practical uses. For one, the study primarily looked at Europeans, so it’s unclear how definitively the same results can apply to other ethnic groups.

“Whilst this study shows this type of profiling can be useful, they do point out importantly it would need further work to develop a score at the individual level that would be useful in real-life situations,” Dr Heslegrave continued.